Adar Poonawalla is not any stranger to gambles. He owes his multibillion-dollar empire to a collection of massive bets that paid off handsomely. Cyrus Poonawalla, his father, made his personal fortune on horses—after which multiplied it by making one other wager in 1966: that he may make more cash producing vaccines than he may on horse breeding and racing. He shaped the Serum Institute of India (SII), which grew slowly for 3 many years, promoting antivenoms and lifesaving vaccines for India.

When Adar, then simply 21, joined the corporate in 2001, he persuaded his father to dramatically ramp up manufacturing—wagering that they might fill a niche in world provide by making low-cost vaccines in very massive portions. By 2017, SII was the world’s largest vaccine producer.

In early 2020, as COVID-19 was spreading quickly world wide, Adar Poonawalla gambled but once more, this time on a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, developed by the College of Oxford and AstraZeneca. In September 2020, his firm, based mostly within the western Indian metropolis of Pune, began manufacturing hundreds of thousands of doses months earlier than the Oxford-AstraZeneca shot was approved to be used. When it proved secure and efficient later that yr, Poonawalla felt vindicated. Reminiscing about his determination to go large on the vaccine, he characterised the Serum Institute as the one firm able to such an enormous swing. “If we don’t do it, who will?” he advised TIME in March. “The opposite chaps don’t have the capabilities that we do by way of scale.”

The world quickly got here to depend on the 41-year-old govt, higher identified earlier than the pandemic for his slick fits, glamorous horse-racing events and flashy automobiles than for his firm’s work in producing vaccines. COVAX —a program mounted by the World Well being Group (WHO) and GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, to make sure equitable vaccine distribution—made the Serum Institute the spine of its efforts based mostly on its CEO’s assure that it might produce 1.1 billion doses for export in 2021.

However the firm didn’t ship after encountering issues that included a hearth at its manufacturing facility, a ban on vaccine exports and world supply-chain disruptions. Critics say Poonawalla may have taken a few of these points into consideration earlier. “The hype clearly didn’t match the fact on the bottom,” says Neeta Sanghi, a advisor in pharmaceutical provide chains. “They thought that they might be the savior of the world.”

And whilst Poonawalla tries to redeem his firm by making good on his guarantees one yr late, he’s encountering new issues that would diminish his makes an attempt to place the Serum Institute on the forefront of the worldwide COVID-19 vaccine provide.

SII’s stumble in 2021 is one cause for the woefully unequal world distribution of vaccines. However it’s additionally the case that rich elements of the world, just like the U.S. and the E.U., have prioritized their very own populations—administering booster pictures extensively whereas fewer than 3.5% of individuals in low-income nations have obtained their first vaccine dose. That’s an issue for the whole world; in any case, it’s seemingly that new variants of SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—will proceed to emerge in locations the place it’s capable of unfold unchecked. The Omicron variant might have resulted from the comparatively low vaccination price—26%—in South Africa, the place it was first detected.

In current months, rich nations have pledged to donate extra doses to poorer nations. U.S. President Joe Biden dedicated in September to purchase 500 million doses on behalf of different nations. However precise deliveries nonetheless lag far behind. That provides Poonawalla one other likelihood to make good on his bets. “The hole has solely widened and turn into extra entrenched,” says Andrea Taylor of the Duke World Well being Institute. “And so Serum continues to be a pivotal a part of the world’s story within the months to come back.”

For Poonawalla, the mission is twofold. In 2020, he sought to make historical past by manufacturing the vaccines that would shield massive elements of the world and doubtlessly hasten the top of the pandemic. He nonetheless thinks that’s doable. However he’s additionally working to revive the fame and attain of his firm. After the COVID-19 vaccine debacle, “we have been so severely criticized, and everybody thought it was throughout,” Poonawalla advised TIME in October. “We want this comeback to regain the misplaced confidence and market share.”

Earlier than the pandemic, SII was little identified, even in India, although it was praised for its regular work making low-cost vaccines to struggle childhood illnesses. Its meningococcal and meningitis shot sells for lower than $1, in contrast with greater than $100 for a meningococcal vaccine within the U.S.

When Poonawalla took over as CEO of SII from his father in 2011, he had large sneakers to fill. Cyrus Poonawalla had been nicknamed the Vaccine King of India for his work supplying vaccines to poor communities. Adar had a fame for an extravagant life-style, however within the background he was increasing his firm’s attain. 20 years in the past, the Serum Institute equipped vaccines to 35 nations. At the moment it has offers with 140.

His enterprise mannequin was to buck the development within the world pharmaceutical business, which had stopped producing routine vaccines for a lot of infectious illnesses that had been quelled within the West. Producing such vaccines was nonetheless obligatory, however not notably profitable. The low-cost, high-volume enterprise mannequin—mixed with SII’s long-standing partnership with GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance—made the corporate very important to childhood immunization campaigns world wide, particularly in poorer nations. By early 2020, SII was producing 1.5 billion doses per yr, boasting that 65% of the world’s kids had obtained no less than one in every of its vaccines.

So when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Poonawalla knew his firm had a central position to play. Whereas all of us waited to search out out which vaccines, if any, can be efficient, Poonawalla positioned his two large bets, pushing his firm into the worldwide highlight. One labored. The opposite didn’t—and the world continues to be paying for it.

The primary gamble, in March 2020, was to leverage his relationships to strike a deal to fabricate the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine for low- and middle-income nations. His household sank $250 million into the enterprise. The Invoice and Melinda Gates Basis invested a further $300 million. By promoting advance orders to nations together with Bangladesh and Morocco, SII secured $250 million extra. By the point the vaccine was approved to be used by the U.Okay. in late December 2020 and by India in early January 2021, SII had some 50 million doses in chilly storage. In February 2021, Ghana obtained the primary COVAX cargo of 600,000 doses of vaccines produced by SII, adopted by different nations together with Liberia and Ivory Coast. Vaccines produced by SII additionally turned integral to India’s immunization marketing campaign, which kick-started in mid-January.

Poonawalla’s second wager was that he may quickly scale up manufacturing to greater than 100 million doses a month and ship most of them abroad. However virtually straight out of the gate, SII stumbled. First, there was the fireplace: on Jan. 21, 2021, a blaze broke out throughout development at one of many firm’s crops in Pune. Officers stated the fireplace, which killed 5 employees, was attributable to {an electrical} quick circuit. SII initially claimed this wouldn’t have an effect on COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing, however afterward, it struggled to provide greater than 60 million doses a month. Poonawalla later admitted the fireplace set again manufacturing two to a few months.

In the meantime, triggered by U.S. export restrictions earlier in 2021, SII had bother procuring uncooked supplies like vials, syringes and bioreactor luggage, which additional slowed manufacturing. Then instances began rising sharply in India, resulting in a devastating second wave in April and Might. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authorities had been imprecise to that time about what number of vaccine doses it might buy from SII, and had not given any monetary help to the corporate to assist it scale up manufacturing. However when Indian states started to stress the Modi authorities about vaccine provides, it responded by banning the export of vaccines starting in April.

Poonawalla’s fall from grace was swift, in India and overseas. Vaccination drives in lots of nations have been stalled, owing to their incapability to get doses they’d anticipated from SII. AstraZeneca warned the corporate of doable authorized motion over the delays. In April, with COVID-19 deaths hovering in India, Poonawalla flew to London, citing threats to his security—inviting additional anger. Beforehand a daily fixture on Indian TV information, he went silent.

By early Might, the Serum Institute had delivered about 30 million doses to the COVAX facility—lower than 3% of the promised quantity. However it wasn’t lengthy earlier than Poonawalla bought his second likelihood. By mid-June, he returned to India and re-established day-to-day oversight of SII. Thanks partially to a money injection of practically $400 million from the Indian authorities to assist increase manufacturing capability, he was capable of purchase a 50% stake in SCHOTT Kaisha, a Mumbai-based firm that produces vials and syringes. He additionally invested in SII’s public picture: in December, the corporate donated $66 million to ascertain the Poonawalla Vaccines Analysis Constructing at Oxford, specializing in world pandemic preparedness.

Sensible outcomes are lastly exhibiting. SII says it produced 250 million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in October, greater than some other single firm on the earth. That very same month—with the Indian authorities’s blessing after 60% of Indians obtained no less than one vaccine dose—the corporate resumed some vaccine exports, sending 1 million pictures to neighboring nations.

Regardless of his blended success over the previous two years, Poonawalla is already forging forward with new ventures. The Serum Institute is now producing one other COVID-19 vaccine, developed by U.S. agency Novavax, which was approved to be used by the WHO in December. Additionally within the works: an intranasal vaccine and a one-dose model of the Russian Sputnik V shot.

All this as Poonawalla works by means of a brand new, sudden problem. In December he revealed that the corporate now has too many doses. India’s demand for vaccines has slowed, whereas new orders from COVAX and different nations have but to select up. Poonawalla introduced on Dec. 7 that the Serum Institute had 500 million extra doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, and would quickly slash manufacturing in half. COVAX has reiterated that its purpose to distribute 2 billion doses by the primary quarter of 2022 will depend on SII’s enjoying a key position, however says it can take time to determine logistical points earlier than ordering from the corporate once more.

In March 2021, earlier than it was clear that the world’s wager on Poonawalla was going bust, he advised TIME that he didn’t wish to have any regrets “when historical past judges my actions.” Seven months later, in October, he was again to his outdated assured self. “It takes time to rebuild belief,” he stated, however expressed certainty that orders would enhance within the coming months. He stated the Serum Institute is able to each supplying COVAX and assembly India’s home vaccine calls for. “We’ve got scaled up greater than we promised,” he stated, and SII is champing on the bit to start delivery hundreds of thousands of doses world wide.

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Write to Abhishyant Kidangoor at [email protected].


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